Saturday, September 17, 2016

Tuesday, September 17, 1940

ITALIANS OPEN A DRIVE INTO EGYPT. Although the latest Italian push in Africa started last Thursday, it didn’t "officially" begin until Sunday, according to Herbert Matthews in Monday’s New York Times. Mr. Matthews writes that 300,000 well-equipped troops, accompanied by a "large" air force, have crossed the Libyan-Egyptian border at Cyrenaica, under the command of Marshal Rodolfo Graziani. Their goal is Alexandria and the Suez Canal. I haven’t seen any details in the papers about the size of British army opposing them, but it’s been generally described as much smaller.

It’s also not clear, at least from the Times account, how much of the Fascist force is composed of Libyan native troops, although an Associated Press dispatch Monday says that a "large number" of native troops are marching alongside the Italian regulars. The A.P. also mentions Italy’s "deepening drive" into Egypt, although it describes the Fascist armies as having only reached the border area of Sollum thus far. Still, they’re moving ahead despite attacks from the R.A.F.

It’s inhospitable country for large armies -- the A.P. describes the area around Sollum as "a hot, sandy wasteland dotted with large black rocks." Presumably most or all of the fighting in the weeks ahead will take place along the well-traveled east-west route within a few miles of the Mediterranean coastline.

AIR DEFENSES STIFFENING? Two stories Monday seem to raise the possibility that both the British and Germans are doing a better job of protecting their homelands from air raids. James M. Minifie reports in Monday’s New York Herald Tribune that the latest German raid on London resulted in the attackers being routed by "the thin red line" of R.A.F. fighters and anti-aircraft fire. By early this morning, Mr. Minifie writes excitedly, "the bulwarks of civilization were holding"and 185 Nazi warplanes had been destroyed -- the biggest one-day toll since the mass air raids began. Meanwhile, according to Sigrid Schultz in the Chicago Tribune, two attempted R.A.F. raids on Berlin Sunday night were driven off by the Nazi air defenses, with no damage to the city.

Maybe it’s mostly propaganda, or just coincidence that both these reports appeared on the same day. Or, it could be that both sides are figuring out how to protect themselves from the kind of bombing attacks that were the source of apocalyptic speculation before the war started. It is true that the death toll in London has gone well beyond one thousand, but that’s not anything like the prediction made around the time of Munich that there would be 633,000 British civilian casualties in the first three weeks of a Nazi bombing campaign. So, maybe defensive strategies are catching up.

NAZIS LESS SURE OF FINAL VICTORY THIS YEAR. Percival Knauth suggests in a Berlin-datelined Sunday New York Times analysis that the Germans are starting to reach for rationales to justify the war as having been "won," despite their failure thus far to launch an invasion and subdue their last remaining enemy. Even in the absence of an invasion, they now maintain that the British will sue for peace. But they’re also starting to accept the possibility that Britain might be able to keep up her resistance into 1941 --

"So far as her influence in European affairs is concerned, the Germans state that England is already vanquished. As the Nazis see it, England is exiled on her island, with Germany or her allies in unequivocal possession of the European coast line. It remains only to cast out the present British Government, which, in German opinion, is provoking further destruction in order to keep on fighting a battle that is already lost. . . . Authoritative press comment in Germany repeatedly indicates speculation by some quarters that Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s government may be ousted by the English people themselves, to be replaced by leaders who will negotiate for peace. How far this thought is shared by the authorities in charge of operations and policy is a matter of pure conjecture. . . . On the minds of the German people the legend of Britain’s might is still deeply engraved. Thus, confident though they may be of victory, many average Germans still allow for the possibility that Winter may find the British still resisting on their island fortress."

Tomorrow is the day mentioned by C.B.S.’s Edward Murrow last week as the favored date in British speculation for the start of a Nazi invasion. It sounds like the Germans are mentally preparing themselves for the chance that it’s not going to happen -- tomorrow, next week, next month, or anytime before next spring.

WHERE THE AIR CAMPAIGNS STAND. Hedley Donovan sums up, in Sunday’s Washington Post, how things look right now in the air battle. He finds a war that is still very much undecided --

"1. Hitler has not thrown his full air power into the struggle for London. 2. German losses in the attacks on London -- in view of the Reich’s aircraft production capacity and the crucial importance of the objective under attack -- are not yet heavy enough to be a decisive factor in the battle. 3. There is virtually no defense against night-bombing raids except anti-aircraft fire forcing the enemy planes too high for accurate bombing. But a ‘total’ attack on London, where any bomb dropped within 10 miles of Charing Cross can do serious damage, does not require accuracy. 4. The R.A.F. holds effective daylight mastery over most of Britain, but is not yet close enough to the enemy’s air strength to break up mass attacks...5. British raids on the Reich and its occupied territories have damaged vital war plants and depleted supplies of strategic materials, but these attacks cannot affect the immediate outcome of the Battle of Britain. 6. British raids on Nazi-held ports on the Channel and North Sea have hampered but not prevented preparations for invasion of Britain."

IS SYRIA A KEY TO THE ITALIAN STRATEGY? Barnet Nover writes in Monday’s Washington Post that Italian troops might move into the Near East in support of their new African offensive aimed at Suez --

"The road to Suez from Libya is long and difficult. The best road is that which fronts the ocean and is, therefore, open to attack from the sea. If the march into Egypt is successful the line of communications with Libya must be kept open. That may take a lot of men and supplies, and for that reason may reduce the numerical advantage which the Italians enjoy over the British in the Egyptian area. But if a large British force can be immobilized in the Near East by virtue of an Italian thrust from the direction of Syria the numerical advantage in the campaign would remain with Italy. This raises the question as to just what the Italian mission in Syria has been doing. Ostensibly it was sent to supervise the disarmament and demobilization of the French force in that mandated area. But once that happens it may be possible to make that region an Italian base of operations. Then the British would be in a vise."

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Sunday, September 15, 1940

CONGRESS APPROVES A PEACETIME DRAFT. Both the Senate and the House voted final passage Saturday of the Burke-Wadsworth bill, paving the way for 400,000 men between the ages of 21 and 35 to be conscripted this fall and winter in the nation’s defense. Another 400,000 will be drafted next spring, and around 800,000 each year following until 1944. Goal of the law is to give the country 4,000,000 trained men in the Army and reserve by 1945. The program will start with the registration of 16,500,000 men in the 21-to-35 group in about another month, on a day chosen by President Roosevelt. Happily, the Fish amendment voted by the House a week ago was dropped in conference, so the Army can get on with its critical work without delay.

I guess the isolationists just kind of gave up in the end. The final bill passed both houses of Congress by 2-to-1 margins. And after thundering for weeks about how a draft would mean the onset of totalitarian dictatorship in the U.S., the Chicago Tribune doesn’t even mention the upcoming final passage vote on the front page of its Saturday editions. It’s not that the last hours of congressional haggling on this issue didn’t produce news, either -- according to Harold B. Hinton in the New York Times, the Senate initially rejected the conference report 37 to 33, demanding tougher wording in the section on industrial conscription. As worded now, the section grants the federal government the authority to seize factories that do not cooperate with the defense program.

NAZI BOMBERS HIT BUCKINGHAM PALACE. Five times. And the House of Lords, too. The New York Herald Tribune reports that the King and Queen were forced to take shelter under the Palace to escape a midday raid on Friday. Correspondent Edward Angly writes that the Friday-early Saturday raid went on almost eight-and-a-half hours, although numerous reports say German bombers are having a tougher time now getting through the anti-aircraft fire. That’s good, but the Chicago Tribune headlined a bitter statistic yesterday – 1,200 dead in London during the past week, and 4,900 wounded. The only bright news about the raids, according to this morning’s radio reports, is that four Nazi raids early this morning were said to have been beaten off by the R.A.F and the anti-aircraft.

More worrisome are the reports of "barge and tank-boat concentrations" and "massed troops" around Calais, which the British bombed again last night. Will the Sept. 18 date mentioned by Ed Murrow on C.B.S. the other night turn out to actually be the invasion day? It’s at least possible that Hitler will trying something before the end of the month. Time is running out, if the Nazis want to have a chance at defeating Britain this year.

"HITLER HASN’T WON." In an editorial probably written before the latest round of mass air raids on London, the New Republic says it’s obvious now that "the German timetable has been badly upset" by Britain’s tough resistance --

"Apparently, the British aerial defense is so well organized that the Germans have been forced to modify their technique. Planes have been coming over in smaller groups and there is greater reliance on night bombing. German losses are thus reduced, but so is the damage to Britain. Undoubtedly great harm has been done to England, though it is apparently not much greater than the Royal Air Force has done in Germany and the occupied territory. Temporarily, time is on the side of the British; if they can hold out a few weeks longer, the weather will come to their aid, making bombing more difficult and invasion by sea almost impossible. Their manufacturing resources and their aid from America will steadily mount during the winter and they may be able to face the Germans in the spring on something like equal terms. That, of course, is assuming that the RAF can stand up under the heavier attacks it will soon be receiving. We do not know why Hitler did not attack with his full force immediately after France surrendered; but whatever the reason, it may prove to have cost him the war."

Again, that kind of optimistic speculation is awfully premature, and it’ll look pretty silly if German troops are fighting in southern England by this time next week. But it does raise an interesting question. If Britain holds on through the air offensive and Hitler doesn’t send in troops, at what point would we be confident that the Germans have decided to forego an invasion until next spring? It seems like if we arrived at that point, British morale would rise a hundredfold -- looking ahead to a renewed battle months from now, one fought on notably better terms for London.

FRANCE STANDS UP TO THE REICH? Astonishingly, Britain’s fierce resistance might be putting some backbone into a former ally. An Associated Press dispatch from Friday says that France has refused to accept Axis demands for more economic and military concessions --

"The Italians were said to have insisted on demobilization of all French troops in North Africa, estimated at about 200,000...Germany, these sources said, called on the Petain government to surrender 56 percent of the livestock in unoccupied France. The German plan was said to have been to send the livestock to Germany and slaughter it for meat. [But] the Petain government, faced with a food problem of its own in the unoccupied region and fearing that each concession would lead to still another demand, was understood to have rejected both the German and Italian demands."

The A.P. adds that negotiations might lead to the French giving more modest concessions -- or, alternately, the Nazis might force the Petain regime from power. In the meantime, a half-cheer to Vichy for turning away from its usual spirit of craven supplication, at least for the moment.

Monday, September 12, 2016

Thursday, September 12, 1940

MORE BIG RAIDS AND INVASION TALK. Edward Angly writes in Wednesday’s New York Herald Tribune that Britain is once again "on the alert for an expected attempt at invasion," after four straight nights of heavy air raids on London. The latest eight-hour raid ended early Wednesday morning, after the Nazis spread destruction among "at least fifty localities in London’s north, west, southwest, City, and central areas." Larry Rue of the Chicago Tribune writes in Wednesday’s editions that "apparently central London has been less severely hit than on the previous nights. The brunt of the attack seems to be confined to the outskirts, with the railroad junctions circling the capital as the main targets." There’s been no official reports on damage and casualties, and newspaper reports are sketchy. The Associated Press mentions the destruction of an apartment house, the Herald Tribune tells of damage to a maternity hospital, and the New York Times says that the fires from the previous night’s raid threatened for a time to engulf what reporter Raymond Daniell describes as "the beautiful St. Paul’s Cathedral and St. Mary-le-Bow Church, whose sweet-toned chimes for generations have lulled the Cockney children to sleep."

But the banner headline in the Chicago Tribune, which always has one, has to do with the R.A.F.’s latest bombing of Berlin, which damaged the Reichstag as well as Brandenburger gate, and shook government buildings. William Shirer reported last night in his C.B.S. broadcast from Berlin that the British raiders also hit the Academy of Art, which is next door to the Munitions Ministry, a Catholic hospital, a Jewish hospital, and a number of of private homes. The raid lasted about two hours and killed five people, the Germans say. It’s "the serverest raid Berlin has had," he said. Interestingly, Mr. Shirer also said that the Berlin press has done an about-face with the way they’re handling the raids. While the papers gave previous British attacks on Berlin "a paragraph on an inside page," they’re now thundering in front-page banner headlines about the "crimes" of R.A.F. "barbarians."

MORE INVASION OMENS. They’ve just said on the radio that the British Navy claims to have inflicted heavy damage on Nazi ships maneuvering in the English Channel. The German vessels were sailing under cover of dive bombers and long-range artillery, which peppered Britain’s southwest coast. The invasion is now "expected hourly," the report says. Could the Germans be fighting on British beaches by this week-end?

BAD TIMING. The most ironic headline in quite a while comes on the front page of Wednesday’s Washington Post, where, amidst the reports of the previous day’s air-raid terrors, we find a public call by Professor Albert Einstein that religious teachers should "give up the doctrine of a personal God." Professor Einstein made his "recommendation" on Tuesday in New York City, a city in which no bombs fell. Many of the men, women, and children of London’s East End offer up prayers daily for the safety of their loved ones and an end to the Nazi horrors that befall them from the skies. One doubts Professor Einstein would repeat his recommendation in their shattered neighborhoods.

A STATESMANLIKE MOVE BY WILLKIE. The radio news this morning also says the House and Senate conferees have come to a complete agreement on the conference version of the Burk-Wadsworth conscription bill -- which will not include the 60-day delay provision approved in the House version, and touted by congressional isolationists. This comes one day after G.O.P. presidential nominee Wendell Willkie defied the majority of his own party and publicly called for the defeat of the 60-day amendment. James A. Hagerty notes in Wednesday’s New York Times that in doing so Mr. Willkie "ran counter to 140 Republicans in the House who voted for the amendment, including Representative Joseph Martin, Jr.. chairman of the national committee." Only 22 Republicans voted against the amendment, says the Times.

Mr. Willkie surely could have bolstered support within his own party by not taking a position on the issue, especially in light of widespread predictions that the House-Senate conferees would do away with the 60-day provision. But the Republican candidate appears to be one of those rare things -- a man for whom principle counts most.

QUESTIONING WILLKIE’S PATRIOTISM? Wendell Willkie appears to be a gracious adversary, too, judging from his remarks about President Roosevelt’s running mate, Agriculture Secretary Henry Wallace. The Democratic vice-presidential candidate is "a fine gentleman," Mr. Willkie said the other week, soon after Willkie’s own running mate, Reprsentative McNary, described Mr. Wallace as "a high-minded and sympathetic Secretary of Agriculture." As if to prove both Willkie and McNary wrong, Mr. Wallace got off a crass speech in Des Moines recently that said in so many words that a vote for Willkie is a vote for Hitler. His exact language, as recorded in the current issue of Time magazine --

"When Roosevelt tried to adjust the internal affairs of the United States to a sick world, [Republicans] fought him at home as Hitler fought him abroad. Some of the bitter attacks on Roosevelt’s program were directly inspired by the agents of Hitler in this country. Others were merely blindly partisan. But, whatever the motive, the effect was the same – these attacks on Roosevelt played into the hands of Hitler. Every evidence of opposition to Roosevelt within the United States has been reason for rejoicing in Berlin....Most Republicans may not realize it, but their party...is the party which the totalitarian powers will back in every way possible."

Mr. Wallace topped off this spewage by claiming that the replacement of Roosevelt, i.e., a Willkie victory, "would cause Hitler to rejoice." Yes, Mr. Wallace did add a disclaimer to these tawdry remarks ("I do not wish to imply that Republican leaders are willfully or consciously giving aid to Hitler."). But all that this means, apparently, is that what saves Wendell Willkie from being a traitor and a Nazi sympathizer is that, well, he’s too stupid to be one. Excuse me, I have wash my hands.

JAPAN PRESSES FRENCH INDO-CHINA. Mark Gayn writes in the Washington Post’s editorial section Wednesday that what transpired at the Franco-Japanese meeting in Hanoi last week is a symbol of just how much influence the Japanese now have in the French colony of Indo-China --

"Ostensibly, the demands presented by two tough little Japanese officers -- Maj. Gen. Issaku Nishamura and Col. S. Sato -- to Vice Admiral Jean Decoux, Governor-General of Indo-China, dealt only with the passage of Japanese troops through the colony en route to the Chinese border. Enough, however, has escaped the blue pencils of censors in Tokyo, Vichy, Hanoi and Haiphong to show that Japan was seeking complete control of Indo-China -- the ‘manchukuoization’ of yet another slice of Asia. A letter just smuggled out of Haiphong to beat the censorship compared the situation in Indo-China today with the early stages of the Japanese invasion of North China around 1932-33. ‘Hanoi,’ the letter informed me, ‘is swarming with Japanese "inspectors." Last June, 40 of them were permitted to enter Indo-China to see that no military supplies were shipped to China. Now, in Hanoi alone, their number exceeds 100. They are also in scores all over the country, making economic and military surveys that do not have the remotest connection with the question of Chinese supplies....The only thing Decoux can do in the circumstances is to accept the Japanese demands, but try to save as much as possible without provoking the Japanese Army in South China...into armed action.’"

Mr. Gayn warns that Japanese authority over Indo-China would be anything but trivial -- "Control of Indo-China would make the Philippines, now fearful for their hard-won independence, particularly susceptible to Japanese pressure....Bases in Indo-China would give Japan supremacy in the South Sea and all East Asia should she decide to emulate Italy. Then Australia, New Zealand, Malaya and even India would be at the mercy of Japanese air and naval raiders."

MAYBE IT’S NOT A TYPO. From the New Republic’s Sideshow section, quoting a news item printed in the Moline, Illinois, Dispatch -- "The Kroll opera house was a sea of brown uniforms sprinkled with the field-grey of the army. Count Ciano, the Italian foreign minister, arrived fifteen minutes before Hitler and was given a seat of horror in the diplomatic box opposite the Fuehrer."