RUSSIA SPEAKS KINDLY OF BRITAIN. Could it be that the improbable friendship of Hitler and Stalin is turning icy? The United Press reports Monday that the tightly-controlled Soviet press has printed an article describing in "the most friendly terms" the role being played by ordinary working-class citizens and trade unionists in the defense of Britain. The U.P. adds that the article "praised British defenses, discipline, morale, living conditions and the attitude of officers toward soldiers." And on top of that, Russia’s Commissar of Defense, Marshal Timoshenko, has warned darkly of "provocations that may threaten our borders." It’s hard to believe he’s talking about the weakened rump states of Finland or Rumania. That just leaves you-know-who. The Wilhelmstrasse can’t be too happy about this.
WAR WITH JAPAN THIS MONTH? The isolationists in Congress who were sounding the alarm last week over the prospects for a war crisis involving Japan on one side and Britain and America on the other might have been half-right. A United Press dispatch reports that Britain is expected to announce shortly her decision to re-open the Burma Road a week from Thursday. Reportedly the Roosevelt Administration is "pleased" with the decision, says the U.P. And Monday’s New York Times carries a story inside the paper quoting a dire warning from the Japanese newspaper Hoshi -- if the British do so, "war will result."
That’s probably a bluff. Japan’s too busy in China to jump into a general war in the Pacific with Britain and the U.S. And as displeased as the Roosevelt Administration would be with the prospect of Japanese adventurism in French Indo-China and the Dutch East Indies, it’s hard to imagine the President asking for a declaration of war over it. But if the Japanese mean what they’re saying right now -- the radio might be crackling later this week with war crisis bulletins. And this time it won’t be Europe facing the danger. It’ll be us.
HOW BAD IS THE DAMAGE IN BRITAIN? Just how badly is the British economy being hit by Nazi air raids? It’s hard to say from the daily press accounts. Newspapermen warn that their dispatches are routinely censored, so that we’re usually told only when German bombers strike hospitals, schools, and churches -- not when they hit docks, gas works, railroads, power stations, and so on. But the current issue of Time magazine includes an ingenious survey which provides some illuminating, though unwelcome, information --
"One way of estimating the extent of general industrial damage was to ascertain how much U.S. enterprises with British branches or holdings were hit. Last week TIME queried 82 enterprises with headquarters all over the U.S. and associate properties all over Britain. The results were not reassuring. Of 68 companies which were willing to discuss their British affiliates, 20 were able to say that they had recently heard that the plants in Britain were altogether unharmed, 40 replied that ‘as far as they knew’ plants were operating, but mostly at reduced rate because of enlistment of labor or difficulties of transport, and eight reported more or less severe damage by bombs. Eight hits in 68 is 11.8%. The figure sounds low, but it must be remembered that much less than 100% destruction spells trouble. The U.S. Defense Commission’s battles against bottlenecks have demonstrated all too clearly how a hit on one vital supply plant could slow up a whole chain of processes. Furthermore, most of these firms produced non-military goods, and the percentage among strategic industries was doubtless substantially higher."
DEMAGOGUERY BY THE DEMOCRATS. Writing in Sunday’s New York Times, Arthur Krock takes a serious look at what’s emerged as a lamentable Democratic strategy in the election campaign -- to portray the Republicans as the choice of the Axis powers, or, in Mr. Krock’s words, "turn the decision of United States voters on the pivot of foreign preference." He produces what are, to my mind, any number of strong arguments why it just wouldn’t make any sense for Hitler to root for Willkie --
"Both the President and Mr. Willkie have proposed ‘aid short of war’ to the British, and both have upheld assistance to China. The Republican candidate has recently gone out ahead of Mr. Roosevelt in urging that more aid be extended, even to the point of ‘sacrifice.’ This has been taken to mean approval of the British request for bombers, on which the President has not expressed himself. Mr. Willkie has also endorsed the pooling of air and naval bases with the British in the Far East, as well as in the near Atlantic and Carribean. What hope of ‘appeasement’ or a slackening of Anglo-American relations does this offer the Axis if Mr. Willkie is elected? He has charged that the Administration’s defense program is impeded by policies and incompetence which he would eradicate if he becomes President, and the stronger and more rapidly built our national defense, the greater challenge to the Axis. Why should this make the dictators prefer to have Mr. Willkie in the White House?"
Mr. Krock answers that the dictators have been so enraged by President Roosevelt’s words of denunciation that they’d like to see him humiliated, whether it’s in their interests or not. But more importantly, this analysis warns that however helpful the Democrats’ strategy might be in re-electing the President, it’ll only be harmful to the country in the long run -- "The strategy...will certainly not -- if continued -- make for that national unity after Nov. 5 for which all patriots are hoping. If the result is to be explained on the ground that a large minority in the United States were voting for or against the wishes of the dictators abroad, no good will be done to a national defense effort which requires the labor of all."
"MOUNTING CRISES" ARE HELPING ROOSEVELT. The latest Gallup survey, as reported in Sunday’s Washington Post, doesn’t have much good news for the Republicans -- Roosevelt is leading in forty-two states, which would give him a landslide total of 499 electoral votes. The popular vote splits 56% for the President, and 44% for Willkie. However, eleven states where Roosevelt leads are still close enough that a four-percentage-point shift in opinion could move any of them into the Willkie column. Gallup also notes that his surveys have for more than two years "shown that President Roosevelt’s popularity increases with every intensification of the war crisis abroad." And that’s what’s happening once again.
Dr. Gallup does note one intriguing sidelight of the popular vote totals. Since the President commands such tremendous leads in the Southern states, he would have to win significantly more than a popular-vote majority, say around 53%, to keep from losing the election in the Electoral College.
Saturday, October 8, 2016
Thursday, October 6, 2016
Sunday, October 6, 1940
HITLER, MUSSOLINI CONFER AGAIN. An Associated Press dispatch from Friday hinted that "big things were in the offing" at the third wartime meeting between Hitler and Mussolini, but Saturday’s story in the New York Times by C. Brooks Peters carries little in the way of real information. Mr. Peters describes the communique issued after this Brenner Pass summit as "perfunctory," revealing little except that the conference was three hours long. But Mr. Peters sees signs these discussions were more contentious than past talks held between the two dictators.
Allen Raymond’s story in the New York Herald Tribune is more informative, telling us the "sweeping" agenda included "the supply services of the warring alliance, the military situation in the eastern Mediterranean and relations with the United States." It’s likely that Germany and Italy are now reconciling themselves to a long war. Hence, they’re turning their attention toward taking the Suez Canal and cutting off British forces from the oil of the Near East. It can't be said enough times -- such a strategy, if successful, could be more dangerous to Britain in the long run than a German attempt at a cross-Channel invasion.
JAPAN’S PRIME MINISTER WARNS AMERICA. The newest Axis partner seems more willing than her cohorts to lay it on the line. Hugh Byas writes in Saturday’s New York Times that Japan’s premier, Prince Konoye, told a group of Tokyo newspapermen that America is risking war unless the U.S. government changes course and accepts the Rome-Berlin-Tokyo vision of a "new order" for the world. Mr. Byas reports that the premier "reaffirmed Japan’s vision of the world divided into great regional superstates, each led by the locally strongest military power. If the United States recognized Japan’s leadership in East Asia, he said, Japan would recognize United States leadership of the Americas."
And if we continue to object to Japanese massacres in China and threats of aggression elsewhere, or to Hitler’s attempts to erase Britain from the map and terrorize the continent’s innocents into submission, then Prince Konoye says that "there will be no other course...than to go to war."
Give the Prince credit for honesty -- the Axis powers see the world the way Chicago gangsters see their city, and he makes no bones about it. We’d be fools not to comprehend that America can’t stand up for what’s right in today’s world without being ready to risk war. And we’d be doubly foolish to listen to the congressional isolationists who blame Japan’s fantastic view of the world on President Roosevelt, for having the discourtesy to quit arming the Japanese militarists.
JAPAN CAN BE STOPPED WITHOUT WAR, IF... Writing in Saturday’s New York Herald Tribune, Major George Fielding Eliot believes that Japanese aggression can still be stopped short of war if -- (1) the Roosevelt Administration extends its embargo on sales of scrap iron to include oil and other raw materials, and (2) the democracies face Japan in concert --
"The time has come to deal with the isolated and weakened member of the Triple Axis, at a time when her new friends are completely powerless to aid her -- just as Italy ought to have been dealt with in September, 1939, and was not: to the bitter cost of her opponents. A complete British-American embargo on all Japanese imports and exports, plus increased aid to China and adequate strengthening of Far Eastern positions, backed by an American-British-Australian agreement to protect the Dutch East Indies and halt Japan in her tracks: this is the policy that will do the job, that will give new hope to the free peoples of the world, that will demonstrate as no words can ever do the fundamental weakness and futility of the new Axis."
Major Eliot emphasizes this can’t be done without a coordinated effort -- "Acting together, our ships and British bases and Dutch troops – the problem is comparatively simple. Alone, none of the three can do very much....It is the combination that Japan needs fear, not any of the three singly. It is the combination that would bring Japan to reason."
ROOSEVELT’S "SURPRISE" -- WAR THIS MONTH? Then again, a bipartisan group of isolationists in Congress are now expressing fears that President Roosevelt will pull a "surprise" in October that would provoke a grave war crisis with Japan, thus sealing Roosevelt’s re-election. Here’s the theory, according to Chesly Manly in Saturday's Chicago Tribune --
"Many Republicans and Democratic isolationists...expect a crisis with explosive possibilities in American relations with Japan immediately after Oct. 18, when Great Britain is expected to reopen the Burma road, only avenue of war supplies for China except from the soviet union. Great Britain yielded to Japanese demands in July and closed the road until Oct. 18. Since then the Roosevelt administration has been putting pressure on the British to reopen the road. If it is reopened, as expected in Washington, Japan is expected to retaliate against British interests in the far east. The fear of the noninterventionists is that Great Britain will hold the United States responsible for the consequences and that drastic action against Japan will be taken by the administration on the very eve of the Presidential election."
Supposedly this plot also involves an Administration attempt to "get congress out of Washington" while the war crisis is being engineered. This ignores, of course, the fact that no conspiracy would be needed to keep Congress in recess right now, since the vast majority of congressmen are back home, hell-bent on getting re-elected.
Anyway, Majority Leader McCormick has answered this isolationist hooey quite well, saying he resented "such reflections on any President, Democrat or Republican."
STATEHOOD FOR HAWAII? An editorial in the Washington Post points out that residents of Hawaii are voting on a statehood referendum this November, which, if approved by majority vote, would send the issue to Congress for consideration. And although the Post says "there would seem to be little logical or historical ground for refusal," Hawaii would be a unique candidate for statehood in a couple of striking ways --
"A considerable portion of the Hawaiian-born Japanese...show a not unnatural disposition to cling to their hereditary customs and language, and to retain a close cultural relationship with Japan. Some of them are suspected, whether justly or unjustly, of employing their American citizenship to further Japanese purposes and interests. Overshadowing every other consideration at this time is the fact that control of the Hawaiian Islands is strategically indispensable to the defense of the United States. So the question of Statehood cannot be decided on grounds of precedent or constitutional theory. At present all other factors must be subordinated to the place of Hawaii in our defense system."
SURPRISINGLY POPULAR GREENERY. From Time magazine’s Miscellany section -- "In Cleveland, Mrs. Rebecca Butler found out why people kept pulling up stalks from her hedge. Police discovered that it consisted of marijuana."
Allen Raymond’s story in the New York Herald Tribune is more informative, telling us the "sweeping" agenda included "the supply services of the warring alliance, the military situation in the eastern Mediterranean and relations with the United States." It’s likely that Germany and Italy are now reconciling themselves to a long war. Hence, they’re turning their attention toward taking the Suez Canal and cutting off British forces from the oil of the Near East. It can't be said enough times -- such a strategy, if successful, could be more dangerous to Britain in the long run than a German attempt at a cross-Channel invasion.
JAPAN’S PRIME MINISTER WARNS AMERICA. The newest Axis partner seems more willing than her cohorts to lay it on the line. Hugh Byas writes in Saturday’s New York Times that Japan’s premier, Prince Konoye, told a group of Tokyo newspapermen that America is risking war unless the U.S. government changes course and accepts the Rome-Berlin-Tokyo vision of a "new order" for the world. Mr. Byas reports that the premier "reaffirmed Japan’s vision of the world divided into great regional superstates, each led by the locally strongest military power. If the United States recognized Japan’s leadership in East Asia, he said, Japan would recognize United States leadership of the Americas."
And if we continue to object to Japanese massacres in China and threats of aggression elsewhere, or to Hitler’s attempts to erase Britain from the map and terrorize the continent’s innocents into submission, then Prince Konoye says that "there will be no other course...than to go to war."
Give the Prince credit for honesty -- the Axis powers see the world the way Chicago gangsters see their city, and he makes no bones about it. We’d be fools not to comprehend that America can’t stand up for what’s right in today’s world without being ready to risk war. And we’d be doubly foolish to listen to the congressional isolationists who blame Japan’s fantastic view of the world on President Roosevelt, for having the discourtesy to quit arming the Japanese militarists.
JAPAN CAN BE STOPPED WITHOUT WAR, IF... Writing in Saturday’s New York Herald Tribune, Major George Fielding Eliot believes that Japanese aggression can still be stopped short of war if -- (1) the Roosevelt Administration extends its embargo on sales of scrap iron to include oil and other raw materials, and (2) the democracies face Japan in concert --
"The time has come to deal with the isolated and weakened member of the Triple Axis, at a time when her new friends are completely powerless to aid her -- just as Italy ought to have been dealt with in September, 1939, and was not: to the bitter cost of her opponents. A complete British-American embargo on all Japanese imports and exports, plus increased aid to China and adequate strengthening of Far Eastern positions, backed by an American-British-Australian agreement to protect the Dutch East Indies and halt Japan in her tracks: this is the policy that will do the job, that will give new hope to the free peoples of the world, that will demonstrate as no words can ever do the fundamental weakness and futility of the new Axis."
Major Eliot emphasizes this can’t be done without a coordinated effort -- "Acting together, our ships and British bases and Dutch troops – the problem is comparatively simple. Alone, none of the three can do very much....It is the combination that Japan needs fear, not any of the three singly. It is the combination that would bring Japan to reason."
ROOSEVELT’S "SURPRISE" -- WAR THIS MONTH? Then again, a bipartisan group of isolationists in Congress are now expressing fears that President Roosevelt will pull a "surprise" in October that would provoke a grave war crisis with Japan, thus sealing Roosevelt’s re-election. Here’s the theory, according to Chesly Manly in Saturday's Chicago Tribune --
"Many Republicans and Democratic isolationists...expect a crisis with explosive possibilities in American relations with Japan immediately after Oct. 18, when Great Britain is expected to reopen the Burma road, only avenue of war supplies for China except from the soviet union. Great Britain yielded to Japanese demands in July and closed the road until Oct. 18. Since then the Roosevelt administration has been putting pressure on the British to reopen the road. If it is reopened, as expected in Washington, Japan is expected to retaliate against British interests in the far east. The fear of the noninterventionists is that Great Britain will hold the United States responsible for the consequences and that drastic action against Japan will be taken by the administration on the very eve of the Presidential election."
Supposedly this plot also involves an Administration attempt to "get congress out of Washington" while the war crisis is being engineered. This ignores, of course, the fact that no conspiracy would be needed to keep Congress in recess right now, since the vast majority of congressmen are back home, hell-bent on getting re-elected.
Anyway, Majority Leader McCormick has answered this isolationist hooey quite well, saying he resented "such reflections on any President, Democrat or Republican."
STATEHOOD FOR HAWAII? An editorial in the Washington Post points out that residents of Hawaii are voting on a statehood referendum this November, which, if approved by majority vote, would send the issue to Congress for consideration. And although the Post says "there would seem to be little logical or historical ground for refusal," Hawaii would be a unique candidate for statehood in a couple of striking ways --
"A considerable portion of the Hawaiian-born Japanese...show a not unnatural disposition to cling to their hereditary customs and language, and to retain a close cultural relationship with Japan. Some of them are suspected, whether justly or unjustly, of employing their American citizenship to further Japanese purposes and interests. Overshadowing every other consideration at this time is the fact that control of the Hawaiian Islands is strategically indispensable to the defense of the United States. So the question of Statehood cannot be decided on grounds of precedent or constitutional theory. At present all other factors must be subordinated to the place of Hawaii in our defense system."
SURPRISINGLY POPULAR GREENERY. From Time magazine’s Miscellany section -- "In Cleveland, Mrs. Rebecca Butler found out why people kept pulling up stalks from her hedge. Police discovered that it consisted of marijuana."
Monday, October 3, 2016
Thursday, October 3, 1940
MORE LOW BLOWS FROM THE DEMOCRATS. First it was FDR's running mate, Henry Wallace, declaring in a speech last month that Hitler wants a Republican victory in November. This week Governor Lehman of New York chimes in, painting the G.O.P. as the favored party of dictators everywhere. Emmet Crozier of the New York Herald Tribune quotes the Governor as telling the state Democratic convention -- "Nothing that could happen in the United States could give Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, and the government of Japan more satisfaction than the defeat of the man who typifies to the whole world the kind of free, humane government which dictators despise -- Franklin D. Roosevelt." Wendell Willkie didn’t mince words in response, as well he shouldn’t, calling the governor’s comments "false, malicious, and subversive."
At least when Mr. Wallace accused Republicans in his Des Moines speech of fighting President Roosevelt at home "as Hitler fought him abroad," he was diplomatic enough to add, "I do not wish to imply that Republican leaders are willfully or consciously giving aid to Hitler." Governor Lehman couldn’t be bothered to do even that much. According to the Herald Tribune, Willkie has demanded such a clarification -- stating clearly that the governor did not intend to impute to the Republican candidate "any other attitude than that of a defender of democracy." Mr. Willkie should get that clarification. Now.
"I WANT TO BE A CAPTAIN, TOO." Gallup may be showing President Roosevelt leading Mr. Willkie by a margin of 55-45 and with a huge electoral-vote advantage, but Republicans have something to brighten their spirits -- the flap over the lightning-fast commission that the President’s son, Elliot Roosevelt, received last week as a captain in the air corps. A Wednesday Chicago Tribune story by William Strand points out that Elliot, who is draft age, will now not only be free from the threat of conscription, but will receive a swell desk job to boot, despite his complete lack of previous military experience. Mr. Strand reports that the news has sparked "a storm of protest from veterans’ organizations and civic groups throughout the country." One chamber of commerce in California has asked Elliott to resign "to avoid endangering the morale of the entire army draft."
The fuss has also inspired brisk sales of anti-Roosevelt buttons reading "I Want to Be a Captain," as well as some appropriately sarcastic letters to congressmen. "I have had several years of R.O.T.C. training and I am now a radio announcer," goes one letter. "Will I be permitted to obtain a reserve commission just like Elliott Roosevelt?" Another letter, sent to Secretary Stimson from a 49-year-old World War veteran, said, "I hereby apply for a commission as a major general in the United States army. I would suggest that, in line with the present policy of the administration, I be placed in charge of the chemical warfare service, since this is the branch of the army I know least about."
It’s way too early to hope this might be a turning point, but surely some veterans and young men facing the draft will be seriously questioning a vote for Roosevelt in the wake of such a naked display of favoritism.
WHAT WILL RUSSIA DO? Barnet Nover acknowledges in Wednesday's Washington Post that the German-Italian-Japanese alliance specifically declares that Soviet Russia’s status will not be challenged by the Axis. But he adds that "Russia cannot afford to ignore the fact that her most dangerous neighbors, east and west, are now formally allied," and reviews Stalin’s three choices on what to do about it --
"Generally speaking, [Russia]...can join the new combination; she can sit on the fence waiting for a favorable opportunity to throw her weight to one side or the other; or she can assume toward the German-Italian-Japanese combination an attitude of outright hostility. Under existing circumstances, the latter is the least likely of the three possibilities open to her. A victory of Germany and Italy in Europe and of Japan in Asia might well have perilous consequences to the Soviet Union.....At the same time, however, there is no immediate danger of a conclusive German-Italian triumph in Europe or a Japanese triumph in Asia. And the more Hitler exhausts Germany’s resources in attempting to destroy British resistance and the longer Japan extends herself in the Far East, the longer Russia will be safe....The second possibility – that Russia will actively join forces with the three-power combination – would also seem to be unlikely....The most likely course Stalin can be expected to pursue at this time is that of benevolent neutrality toward the Berlin bloc. He has little to gain by actively opposing it. He has nothing to gain by joining that bloc. He has much to gain by getting Germany, Italy, and Japan to extend themselves and steadily become weaker vis-a-vis Russia than they are today."
COULD THE U.S. HAVE APPEASED JAPAN? Also in Wednesday’s Washington Post, Ernest K. Lindley takes up the arguments put forth in the Chicago Tribune and elsewhere that the Roosevelt Administration is to blame for Japan’s turn toward the Axis. He points out that U.S. policy in the Far East has had its share of zigs and zags, and that current get-tough approach actually has a long and bipartisan pedigree --
"During 1929, under President Hoover and Secretary of State Stimson, we intervened in the dispute over the Chinese Eastern Railway, in what was then Manchuria, as if that were an area in which we had important rights. During 1931 and 1932, under the same management, we made ourselves the spearhead of opposition to Japanese expansion into Manchuria. We were brought to the verge of war with Japan over a territory in which our interests were negligible....After Roosevelt entered the White House, however, the custom of berating Japan in notes was suspended, and by 1936 the President was boasting privately that Japanese propaganda had turned away from the United States and toward Great Britain....In 1937, when the Japanese began to push into China proper, a new situation arose. We remonstrated, although we were careful not to get ahead of the British....With the passage of time, our hopes of the restoration of a moderate government in Japan have been disappointed. The trend has been the other way. Japan has set forth a claim to domination of all of the Far East – Manchukuo, China, and of Oceania, Indo-China, and Siam -- and probably also, in due time, the eastern part of Siberia and perhaps India as well."
Taking a swipe at the isolationist crowd, Mr. Lindley argues that this timeline proves Japan chose her course independently of Western influence -- "Could anyone except a gullible believer in bedtime stories believe that Japan promulgated these imperial ambitions because of anything that we said? They promulgated them and are carrying them out in spite of everything that we, and others, have said. Like other expanding imperial powers, they will not be checked until they are checked by force."
At least when Mr. Wallace accused Republicans in his Des Moines speech of fighting President Roosevelt at home "as Hitler fought him abroad," he was diplomatic enough to add, "I do not wish to imply that Republican leaders are willfully or consciously giving aid to Hitler." Governor Lehman couldn’t be bothered to do even that much. According to the Herald Tribune, Willkie has demanded such a clarification -- stating clearly that the governor did not intend to impute to the Republican candidate "any other attitude than that of a defender of democracy." Mr. Willkie should get that clarification. Now.
"I WANT TO BE A CAPTAIN, TOO." Gallup may be showing President Roosevelt leading Mr. Willkie by a margin of 55-45 and with a huge electoral-vote advantage, but Republicans have something to brighten their spirits -- the flap over the lightning-fast commission that the President’s son, Elliot Roosevelt, received last week as a captain in the air corps. A Wednesday Chicago Tribune story by William Strand points out that Elliot, who is draft age, will now not only be free from the threat of conscription, but will receive a swell desk job to boot, despite his complete lack of previous military experience. Mr. Strand reports that the news has sparked "a storm of protest from veterans’ organizations and civic groups throughout the country." One chamber of commerce in California has asked Elliott to resign "to avoid endangering the morale of the entire army draft."
The fuss has also inspired brisk sales of anti-Roosevelt buttons reading "I Want to Be a Captain," as well as some appropriately sarcastic letters to congressmen. "I have had several years of R.O.T.C. training and I am now a radio announcer," goes one letter. "Will I be permitted to obtain a reserve commission just like Elliott Roosevelt?" Another letter, sent to Secretary Stimson from a 49-year-old World War veteran, said, "I hereby apply for a commission as a major general in the United States army. I would suggest that, in line with the present policy of the administration, I be placed in charge of the chemical warfare service, since this is the branch of the army I know least about."
It’s way too early to hope this might be a turning point, but surely some veterans and young men facing the draft will be seriously questioning a vote for Roosevelt in the wake of such a naked display of favoritism.
WHAT WILL RUSSIA DO? Barnet Nover acknowledges in Wednesday's Washington Post that the German-Italian-Japanese alliance specifically declares that Soviet Russia’s status will not be challenged by the Axis. But he adds that "Russia cannot afford to ignore the fact that her most dangerous neighbors, east and west, are now formally allied," and reviews Stalin’s three choices on what to do about it --
"Generally speaking, [Russia]...can join the new combination; she can sit on the fence waiting for a favorable opportunity to throw her weight to one side or the other; or she can assume toward the German-Italian-Japanese combination an attitude of outright hostility. Under existing circumstances, the latter is the least likely of the three possibilities open to her. A victory of Germany and Italy in Europe and of Japan in Asia might well have perilous consequences to the Soviet Union.....At the same time, however, there is no immediate danger of a conclusive German-Italian triumph in Europe or a Japanese triumph in Asia. And the more Hitler exhausts Germany’s resources in attempting to destroy British resistance and the longer Japan extends herself in the Far East, the longer Russia will be safe....The second possibility – that Russia will actively join forces with the three-power combination – would also seem to be unlikely....The most likely course Stalin can be expected to pursue at this time is that of benevolent neutrality toward the Berlin bloc. He has little to gain by actively opposing it. He has nothing to gain by joining that bloc. He has much to gain by getting Germany, Italy, and Japan to extend themselves and steadily become weaker vis-a-vis Russia than they are today."
COULD THE U.S. HAVE APPEASED JAPAN? Also in Wednesday’s Washington Post, Ernest K. Lindley takes up the arguments put forth in the Chicago Tribune and elsewhere that the Roosevelt Administration is to blame for Japan’s turn toward the Axis. He points out that U.S. policy in the Far East has had its share of zigs and zags, and that current get-tough approach actually has a long and bipartisan pedigree --
"During 1929, under President Hoover and Secretary of State Stimson, we intervened in the dispute over the Chinese Eastern Railway, in what was then Manchuria, as if that were an area in which we had important rights. During 1931 and 1932, under the same management, we made ourselves the spearhead of opposition to Japanese expansion into Manchuria. We were brought to the verge of war with Japan over a territory in which our interests were negligible....After Roosevelt entered the White House, however, the custom of berating Japan in notes was suspended, and by 1936 the President was boasting privately that Japanese propaganda had turned away from the United States and toward Great Britain....In 1937, when the Japanese began to push into China proper, a new situation arose. We remonstrated, although we were careful not to get ahead of the British....With the passage of time, our hopes of the restoration of a moderate government in Japan have been disappointed. The trend has been the other way. Japan has set forth a claim to domination of all of the Far East – Manchukuo, China, and of Oceania, Indo-China, and Siam -- and probably also, in due time, the eastern part of Siberia and perhaps India as well."
Taking a swipe at the isolationist crowd, Mr. Lindley argues that this timeline proves Japan chose her course independently of Western influence -- "Could anyone except a gullible believer in bedtime stories believe that Japan promulgated these imperial ambitions because of anything that we said? They promulgated them and are carrying them out in spite of everything that we, and others, have said. Like other expanding imperial powers, they will not be checked until they are checked by force."
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