Tuesday, July 9, 1940

NOW, A FRENCH-BRITISH CONFLICT? The headlines are fantastic, but there it is -- according to the Associated Press on Monday, two rearmed French air squadrons joined German and Italian warplanes this past week-end in bombing British Gibraltar. There can be no doubt about it -- the information comes from a French Navy Ministry communique. It’s the latest expression of bitterness between the two former allies since the British undertook to seize or sink the bulk of the French fleet at Oran six days ago. The A.P. called that battle “the strangest of all naval actions in the world’s history,” and it was as necessary as it was tragic. Britain, as a tearful Prime Minister Churchill explained to the House of Commons late last week, could not allow the surrender government of Marshal Petain to put France’s large navy in German hands, as he had promised to do.

As difficult as the decision must have been to attack and kill men who were Allied sailors but a short time ago, the good news is that the British strategy has at least done what it was designed to do. The A.P. says that the Royal Navy’s ten-minute attack on Oran sank a French battleship, damaged a battle cruiser, sank or set on fire two destroyers, and torpedoed an escaping battle cruiser. What’s more, the United Press indicated this week-end that the British are blockading a French aircraft carrier docked at Martinique Island, off Venezuela, and that another French naval battle group has been demobilized without incident by British ships at Alexandria, Egypt.

Not surprisingly, the Vichy government has angrily broken off relations with London, and the United Press described the two governments on Saturday as being "virtually at war."

COULD THE BRITISH ATTACK BACKFIRE? It looks like what the Associated Press calls this “period of a strange, unequal naval warfare” is going very much in favor of the British. But James Reston writes in Sunday’s New York Times that “most Frenchmen [in London], including those who were extremely critical of the Petain regime until Wednesday morning, rallied to support that government as soon as the details of the Mediterranean battle were announced.”

Although ultimately the presence of Nazi troops in France might trump any other consideration, Mr. Reston says the British attacks could have dire repercussions for themselves -- “The French people can still play a vital if not decisive role in the coming Battle of Britain. More than half the French fleet is still in French hands. If French sailors get even a quarter of these home they will contribute a great deal to the Nazi war effort. If the French people out of the depth of their sorrow and disappointment make a scapegoat out of the British and cooperate with the Germans, the output of French factories alone will go a long way toward neutralizing any help Britain may be able to get in the next six months from the United States.”

This is true, but what alternative does Mr. Reston suggest? What if the British were to do nothing? Then the entire French navy, not just a quarter of it, would soon be in German hands -- unless, that is, Britain wanted to trust its national survival to the Fuehrer’s promise that he wouldn’t appropriate any of France’s warships. After all, the Nazis haven’t broken any promises, have they?

HOW BERLIN AND LONDON VIEW THE WAR. The New York Times prints two contrasting reports Sunday describing at how the military men of both sides view the upcoming Battle of Britain --

C. Brooks Peters, writing from Berlin -- “For many months well-informed German quarters that have been consistently accurate in their predictions since last Sept. 1 have maintained that this war will be successfully concluded by Fall, by which they mean Sept. 21 at the latest. The rapidity and thoroughness with which the German military machine has swept its successive opponents from the field, however, has aroused such confidence among the German people that they will unquestionably be surprised if the Reich’s last remaining enemy, Great Britain, is not beaten by the end of August. The threat of London spokesmen that the British government will retire elsewhere in the wide reaches of the far-flung empire, should the course of events make the holding of the British Isles impossible, is not taken too seriously by the Germans....The only dominion to which the British government could feasibly retire, in view of the present world conditions, it is thought here, is Canada. It would therewith....in the words of the retired German Admiral Brueninghaus, ‘sink into a branch of the United States.’”

Raymond Daniell, writing from London -- “Those who are in charge of British policy hold that if Germany seriously contemplates an invasion of the United Kingdom, Herr Hitler’s troops are in for a hot reception. They would be met by the biggest army of the toughest troops ever concentrated in this country. And unless the British Navy and air force are almost completely wiped out, Germany’s lines of communication would be constantly threatened, if not immediately severed. The first expeditionary forces, it is believed, would be annihilated, captured, or driven into the sea. At the same time it is the belief here that, if given supremacy in the air, together with the overwhelming naval power Britain possesses, it would be much more feasible at some future time for this country to attack Germany along her long, exposed coastline, which now extends from Northern Norway down the whole west coast of France to the Spanish frontier.”

WILL HE OR WON’T HE? President Roosevelt has apparently made up his mind on the third-term question – and he’s sworn at least two people to secrecy about it. He was alleged last week to have told his personal secretary, Marguerite A. Le Hand, which prompted the Washington Post to run a front page story and a picture of Miss Le Hand on the front page of its Friday editions. Then, all the papers ran front-page stories Monday saying the President has told his plans to James Farley, Postmaster General and Democratic National Chairman. As Walter Trohan put it in Monday’s Chicago Tribune, Mr. Farley was given the answer to “the political question which has agitated the nation for three years.” The rest of us will learn it, presumably, sometime after the Democratic Convention opens next Monday in Chicago.

Ernest Lindley writes in Sunday’s Post that although “men close to the President profess confidence that he will not decline the third-term nomination,” the Republican nomination of Wendell Willkie increases the chances that Roosevelt won’t run after all, because of Mr. Willkie’s virtual agreement with the President on war issues -- “As a result of the Willkie nomination, the President is being advised publicly by sundry columnists and publicists that it is no longer necessary for him to run. This advice comes from men who never were for him or his domestic policies, but who agreed with his policy of strong support for the Allies and therefore perhaps would have advocated his renomination and reelection if Willkie had not kidnaped the Republican nomination.”

Thursday, July 4, 1940

A MANY-HEADED THREAT IN THE BALKANS. Washington Post columnist Barnet Nover reminds us in Wednesday’s editions that the current crisis in Rumania is far more than a confrontation between the Soviets and the Rumanians. In fact, it threatens the safety of everybody in the Balkans --

“Hungary has gone on a war footing, apparently with the determination of seizing the lost province of Transylvania if Rumania is not willing to relinquish it voluntarily. But Hungary is not Russia. Whereas Rumania felt she had no choice but to submit to Russia’s demand for Bessarabia and Bukovina, her leaders feel she is still a match for the Magyars. Greece has rushed troops to eastern Thrace, that narrow strip of land which blocks Bulgaria’s path to the Aegean and which Bulgaria has long desired. The Turks are on their guard along the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. For 20 years they have regarded the Soviet Union as a friend and ally. But this Red bear is now on the march and there is no certainty that, after washing his paws in the Danube, he will not make tracks for the Mediterranean. And Bulgaria is not quite sure whether this is the moment to regain Dobrudja or to take precautions against becoming a Russian satellite.”

Mr. Nover says the Russians could be facing a long-term threat, although the Reds certainly do have the upper hand at this time -- “In the long run all of Russia’s recent gains may merely serve as the prelude to a disastrous war in which an isolated Russia would have to fight an all-powerful Germany. For the time being, however, the Soviet Union is in a position to proceed with impunity. Germany cannot intervene in the Balkans at this time, however urgent the need, without some danger to her prospects of victory in the west. The important fact today is that Germany’s present and prospective satellites in southeastern Europe are at Russia’s mercy.”

HAPPY FOURTH TO ALL. I’m packing up the Hupmobile and heading out for a little holiday fishing trip. So, no blogging for a few days. Whether you’re observing the Fourth by having a picnic, attending a band concert, or blowing up some cannon crackers, hope it’s happy and safe for you and yours. May God bless America and protect her freedom.