ITALIANS OPEN A DRIVE INTO EGYPT. Although the latest Italian push in Africa started last Thursday, it didn’t "officially" begin until Sunday, according to Herbert Matthews in Monday’s New York Times. Mr. Matthews writes that 300,000 well-equipped troops, accompanied by a "large" air force, have crossed the Libyan-Egyptian border at Cyrenaica, under the command of Marshal Rodolfo Graziani. Their goal is Alexandria and the Suez Canal. I haven’t seen any details in the papers about the size of British army opposing them, but it’s been generally described as much smaller.
It’s also not clear, at least from the Times account, how much of the Fascist force is composed of Libyan native troops, although an Associated Press dispatch Monday says that a "large number" of native troops are marching alongside the Italian regulars. The A.P. also mentions Italy’s "deepening drive" into Egypt, although it describes the Fascist armies as having only reached the border area of Sollum thus far. Still, they’re moving ahead despite attacks from the R.A.F.
It’s inhospitable country for large armies -- the A.P. describes the area around Sollum as "a hot, sandy wasteland dotted with large black rocks." Presumably most or all of the fighting in the weeks ahead will take place along the well-traveled east-west route within a few miles of the Mediterranean coastline.
AIR DEFENSES STIFFENING? Two stories Monday seem to raise the possibility that both the British and Germans are doing a better job of protecting their homelands from air raids. James M. Minifie reports in Monday’s New York Herald Tribune that the latest German raid on London resulted in the attackers being routed by "the thin red line" of R.A.F. fighters and anti-aircraft fire. By early this morning, Mr. Minifie writes excitedly, "the bulwarks of civilization were holding"and 185 Nazi warplanes had been destroyed -- the biggest one-day toll since the mass air raids began. Meanwhile, according to Sigrid Schultz in the Chicago Tribune, two attempted R.A.F. raids on Berlin Sunday night were driven off by the Nazi air defenses, with no damage to the city.
Maybe it’s mostly propaganda, or just coincidence that both these reports appeared on the same day. Or, it could be that both sides are figuring out how to protect themselves from the kind of bombing attacks that were the source of apocalyptic speculation before the war started. It is true that the death toll in London has gone well beyond one thousand, but that’s not anything like the prediction made around the time of Munich that there would be 633,000 British civilian casualties in the first three weeks of a Nazi bombing campaign. So, maybe defensive strategies are catching up.
NAZIS LESS SURE OF FINAL VICTORY THIS YEAR. Percival Knauth suggests in a Berlin-datelined Sunday New York Times analysis that the Germans are starting to reach for rationales to justify the war as having been "won," despite their failure thus far to launch an invasion and subdue their last remaining enemy. Even in the absence of an invasion, they now maintain that the British will sue for peace. But they’re also starting to accept the possibility that Britain might be able to keep up her resistance into 1941 --
"So far as her influence in European affairs is concerned, the Germans state that England is already vanquished. As the Nazis see it, England is exiled on her island, with Germany or her allies in unequivocal possession of the European coast line. It remains only to cast out the present British Government, which, in German opinion, is provoking further destruction in order to keep on fighting a battle that is already lost. . . . Authoritative press comment in Germany repeatedly indicates speculation by some quarters that Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s government may be ousted by the English people themselves, to be replaced by leaders who will negotiate for peace. How far this thought is shared by the authorities in charge of operations and policy is a matter of pure conjecture. . . . On the minds of the German people the legend of Britain’s might is still deeply engraved. Thus, confident though they may be of victory, many average Germans still allow for the possibility that Winter may find the British still resisting on their island fortress."
Tomorrow is the day mentioned by C.B.S.’s Edward Murrow last week as the favored date in British speculation for the start of a Nazi invasion. It sounds like the Germans are mentally preparing themselves for the chance that it’s not going to happen -- tomorrow, next week, next month, or anytime before next spring.
WHERE THE AIR CAMPAIGNS STAND. Hedley Donovan sums up, in Sunday’s Washington Post, how things look right now in the air battle. He finds a war that is still very much undecided --
"1. Hitler has not thrown his full air power into the struggle for London. 2. German losses in the attacks on London -- in view of the Reich’s aircraft production capacity and the crucial importance of the objective under attack -- are not yet heavy enough to be a decisive factor in the battle. 3. There is virtually no defense against night-bombing raids except anti-aircraft fire forcing the enemy planes too high for accurate bombing. But a ‘total’ attack on London, where any bomb dropped within 10 miles of Charing Cross can do serious damage, does not require accuracy. 4. The R.A.F. holds effective daylight mastery over most of Britain, but is not yet close enough to the enemy’s air strength to break up mass attacks...5. British raids on the Reich and its occupied territories have damaged vital war plants and depleted supplies of strategic materials, but these attacks cannot affect the immediate outcome of the Battle of Britain. 6. British raids on Nazi-held ports on the Channel and North Sea have hampered but not prevented preparations for invasion of Britain."
IS SYRIA A KEY TO THE ITALIAN STRATEGY? Barnet Nover writes in Monday’s Washington Post that Italian troops might move into the Near East in support of their new African offensive aimed at Suez --
"The road to Suez from Libya is long and difficult. The best road is that which fronts the ocean and is, therefore, open to attack from the sea. If the march into Egypt is successful the line of communications with Libya must be kept open. That may take a lot of men and supplies, and for that reason may reduce the numerical advantage which the Italians enjoy over the British in the Egyptian area. But if a large British force can be immobilized in the Near East by virtue of an Italian thrust from the direction of Syria the numerical advantage in the campaign would remain with Italy. This raises the question as to just what the Italian mission in Syria has been doing. Ostensibly it was sent to supervise the disarmament and demobilization of the French force in that mandated area. But once that happens it may be possible to make that region an Italian base of operations. Then the British would be in a vise."
No comments:
Post a Comment