Thursday, October 31, 1940

DID HITLER O.K. THE ATTACK ON GREECE? I don’t believe it for a second, but Russell Hill reports from Bulgaria in Wednesday’s New York Herald Tribune on a remarkable belief held by some Balkan diplomats – that Mussolini’s invasion of Greece "was undertaken without the knowledge or against the wishes of his Axis partner." It’s true that the German press has been surprisingly mum about the Duce’s latest offensive, and the Herald Tribune story puts forth the theory that Hitler is looking for "ways of ending the conflict with a compromise -- Greece to make certain concessions to Italy and Italy to agree not to violate the independent status of Greece. Der Fuehrer, it is said, is not anxious to see all of Greece occupied by Italian troops, and is not yet ready to begin a large-scale campaign in the Mediterranean and the Near East."

But that doesn’t jibe with what the Associated Press reported yesterday, namely that a semiofficial German commentary "intimated" that Turkey may soon receive an ultimatum similar to the one the Greeks received just hours before the invasion. Things like that don’t show up in the Nazi press by chance. In any event, the theory offered in a United Press dispatch sounds much more credible -- German troops are about to go through Spain to seize the British fortress of Gibraltar, "as part an impending Axis ‘nutcracker’ offensive at both ends of the Mediterranean." The Italians would attack at the eastern end of the Mediterranean, the Germans at the western end, and the British would be caught in the middle. Or so the U.P. says. Makes sense to me.

NOTHING CLEAR YET IN GREECE. This morning’s radio news passes along a Greek claim that they’ve hurled back Italian troops at the center of the front, and even taken Italian forts inside Albania. But New York Times Rome correspondent Camille M. Cianfarra writes in Wednesday’s editions that Italy claims to have penetrated forty miles into Greek territory. Not so, say the Greeks -- the line is holding at every point. What seems to be clear is that the Italians are attacking by land at three mountain passes, with Salonika in north-central Greece as their initial objective. Also, there’s a race between Italian and British naval forces to take the island of Corfu.

It sounds so far much like the first few days of Poland or Finland -- a slew of confusing claims and counterclaims. But in both of those earlier battles we got a much sharper idea by the second week of just how well, or how badly, the defenders were faring.

"REAL RISKS" TO ITALY IN THE GREEK WAR. Washington Post columnist Barnet Nover notes Wednesday that Mussolini "has always been finicky" in choosing countries to invade, preferring victims who are "weak and helpless." Greece seems at a glance to match that description, but Mr. Nover warns the Duce that Italy’s newest aggression is not without risks --

"In the first place, Italy must now more than ever reckon with the British fleet. Through the occupation of Greek coastal points and Greek islands, most notably Crete, the British will be in a far better position than they have been to attack the Italian mainland, Italian supply lines in the eastern Mediterranean, and Italian concentrations in Libya and western Egypt. There is also the possibility that the fires of conflict now raging on the Greek peninsula may spread to other areas of the Balkans. This possibility is, at the moment, remote. Behind Italy stands Germany with her enormous army. Part of that army is in Rumania, whence it might move from through Bulgaria to Turkey. Part of the German forces are on the frontiers of Yugoslavia and thus likely to intimidate that nation into inactivity. And as long as Russia shows no signs of opposing the Axis in the Balkans the possibility that Turkey will join the fray is limited. But if the Greeks manage to put up a successful resistance for any reasonable length of the time the Balkan picture might undergo a decided change. For in that case the British will have had a chance fully to establish themselves at strategic points in the Greek area and Greece’s Balkan neighbors will be less fearful than they appear today of the might of the Axis."

GALLUP GIVES WILLKIE AN "EVEN CHANCE." Republican pulses no doubt quickened a little after reading Dr. Gallup’s latest article in Wednesday’s Washington Post, saying that the trend toward Willkie continues "at an accelerated pace" in the presidential campaign’s final week. In Gallup’s own words, "Willkie has whittled down the President’s popular vote lead this month, and in survey returns tabulated up to the time this message was telegraphed, shows an upsurge in popularity reminiscent of his dramatic gain on the eve of the Republican convention last summer."

Specifically, President Roosevelt’s lead over Willkie has narrowed to 53% to 47%, an increase of a percentage point-and-a-half for Willkie since the last Gallup poll -- "narrowing the contest down to the point where he is now within easy striking distance of victory if nothing happens to upset the trend." Even more heartening, the interviewing for this latest survey was done before John L. Lewis’s dramatic speech endorsing Willkie before a nationwide radio audience last Friday night. Gallup even predicts that the company’s final survey of electoral votes will show Willkie even with the President or slightly ahead, given that Republican gains have been so widespread.

And once more, the pollster reminds us that 53% is in fact a dangerously low level of support for Roosevelt -- "actually the equivalent of a neck-and-neck race because, owing to surplus Democratic majorities in the South, a Democratic President normally requires about 52 per cent in the Nation to win."