AUGUST 1939 ALL OVER AGAIN. There seems to be an undercurrent of dread on the front pages of Wednesday's papers, akin to what everybody felt in the last days of August a year ago. Once again some a flurry of threats and troop movements involving several small countries, and two large ones, Germany and Russia. And again it seems like any day now the now-terrified peoples of the region might find their cities and livelihoods wrecked by the Blitzkrieg.
Ben A. Thirkield of the Washington Post finds "signs of an impending explosion in dynamite-laden southeast Europe," including the sudden arrival of German troops in Albania, "giving rise to fears of an impending Axis move against Turkey, Greece, or Yugoslavia." The Associated Press quotes an official Soviet statement pointedly asserting that Germany never informed Russia of Nazi moves into Rumania -- and proclaiming that Russia's armies will be kept in a state of "constant mobilized preparedness." The New York Times reports that Russia and Turkey are working on a military-assistance pact, and that the Greeks are calling several more classes to the colors.
The only thing that seems certain at this point is something big is about to happen in the Balkans.
PEACE WITH BRITAIN, WAR WITH RUSSIA? Russell Hill reports from Bucharest in Wednesday's New York Herald Tribune that some in eastern Europe are actually speculating, on the basis of God knows what, that Britain and Germany are about to suddenly conclude a peace deal --
"While few facts and many rumors come from the frontier zone, the extent of German-Rumanian military preparations on this side of the Soviet border has suggested to many persons here the possibility that Great Britain and Germany might make a peace which would give Adolph Hitler a free hand in the East. It will be remembered that early in 1939 British foreign policy favored allowing Germany to expand toward the East, in the hope that this would eventually bring the Reich into collision with the Soviet Union. Many observers are now asking whether, under present conditions, Britain might not be willing to agree to German domination in Poland and southeastern Europe. On the other side, Hitler has often said he did not want to dismember the British Empire, and merely wanted to be left alone in what he considers his 'Lebensraum' (living space), presumably eastern and southeastern Europe. But even if talk of peace is still premature, the chances of German-Soviet conflict are not eliminated."
If Britain were to turn around and make such a peace with Germany, it would prove right every cynical thing the isolationists have been saying about the self-interested, scheming duplicity of those back-stabbing Europeans. But it's beyond belief that Churchill would agree to such a thing, and almost equally beyond belief that the Rumanians, or Mr. Hill, or anyone else could take such a fantasy very seriously. I don't think it was ever more than a minority belief in Chamberlain's government that it would be "good" for Germany to attack eastward -- Chamberlain's own beliefs and character show his fondest hopes to be that the Nazis could somehow be persuaded to be responsible neighbors living in peace with all of Europe. If Britain seemed to endorse the idea of Hitler "expanding" anywhere, it was in Africa, where significant colonial concessions would likely have been granted by the British in exchange for disarmament.
Besides, it's way too late to talk about Hitler restricting his territorial ambitions to eastern Europe. The Nazis have wrecked the nations of Norway, Belgium, Holland, and France. How exactly would a peace agreement go about un-wrecking them?
16,500,000 REGISTER FOR THE DRAFT. For the first time since Sept. 12, 1918, the nation's men are being summoned for possible military service. Registration day went on Wednesday from 7 A.M. to 9 P.M., as men between the ages of twenty-one and thirty-five signed up. Most of the papers are treating it matter-of-factly, the New York Herald Tribune adding a little color to its story by describing the cross-section of those affected by the call -- "doctors, lawyers, merchants, farmers, mechanics, students, ditch diggers, loafers and everyone else, citizens and aliens alike." A lottery will be held on Oct. 26 and the first callup, for 400,000 draftees, will be announced in November.
The isolationist papers, on the other hand, can't resist using the day to get in some more jabs against conscription, President Roosevelt, or whatever. The Chicago Tribune's front-page editorial cartoon isn't a masterpiece of subtlety. A young man, helpfully labeled "Your Son!", faces a crossroads near a tombstone marked "Draft Registration" -- one fork is a "Willkie Road" leading to a glorious sunrise marked "Peace," while the other fork, the "Roosevelt Road," is marked by two other tombstones successively reading "Conscription" and "War." Just for good measure, there's a gigantic skull and crossbones gleaming in the darkness at the end of the road. The caption is, "On the Road to War -- The Last Turn Off Is Just Ahead."
Of course, what the cartoonist doesn't say is that Willkie is as much a supporter of the peacetime draft as President Roosevelt. In fact, somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Tribune has ever mentioned Willkie's support for the draft.
IT'S TOO LATE NOW, BUT... Here's the registration reminder that ran Wednesday on the front page of the New York Times --
"If you are a man who has reached his twenty-first birthday but has not reached his thirty-sixth birthday you must register today for selective military service. If you have no valid reason for failing to do so you are liable to arrest and, if convicted, you may be sentenced to as much as five years in prison or fined $10,000."
Radio reports this morning say that registration centers all over the country were "swamped" and many had to stay open well past the scheduled 9 P.M. closing time to accommodate the long lines of young men. No wonder.
WILLKIE GAINS IN THE MIDDLE WEST. At last, some good news for the G.O.P. -- the latest Gallup poll, reported in Tuesday's Washington Post, says that Wendell Willkie has picked up 62 electoral votes by taking the lead in Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. Gallup says that Willkie is closing the gap with Roosevelt in Ohio, too. "The shift emphasizes the fact that the campaign still has every element of a horse race as it rounds the turn into the home stretch," says Dr. Gallup.
Of course, this doesn't come close to giving Willkie a lead in the presidential race. The last comprehensive Gallup survey, back on October 6, gave President Roosevelt 499 electoral votes and 55 percent of the popular vote. But even that lopsided finding showed that 221 of the President's electoral votes came from eleven states in which the Democrats held only a slight lead. And Dr. Gallup now posits that "the presidential race may turn into a nip and tuck affair in electoral votes."
The latest Gallup news gives credence to an analysis by Arthur Krock in last Sunday's New York Times describing a shift in the President's strategy. According to Mr. Krock, "Democrat managers had been confident...that Mr. Willkie was a badly beaten man, and that the spread of war and critical conditions abroad would merely clinch his already certain defeat." But they've found since that Willkie's vigorous campaigning, especially his stinging attacks on entrenched Democratic city bosses, is making headway. The result -- the President has given his aloof strategy of not going out on anything that looked like a campaign trip, and last week made "defense inspection" trips to Pennsylvania and Ohio that looked suspiciously like election rallies.
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