THE AXIS WANTS TO CONTROL AFRICA. Sigrid Schultz writes in Saturday’s Chicago Tribune that Germany and Italy are "extending their ‘Monroe Doctrine of Europe’ to include Africa," and are working out the details at a Rome conference between Nazi Foreign Minister von Ribbentrop and Premier Mussolini. The German press has picked up the theme, according to Miss Schultz, "emphasizing that England must be expelled from the African continent." Herbert L. Matthews of the New York Times says that Spain’s future is figuring in the talks as well. Reputedly, the Axis partners are considering giving Spain part of French Morocco for joining the war, or at least for letting Germany and Italy use her as a base of operations against British Mediterranean fortresses such as Gibraltar.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press cites Fascist sources in Rome as hinting that a new Axis "surprise" might be coming soon, taking the focus away from the Battle of Britain for the moment and involving Spain, the Balkans, or the Near East. The A.P. didn’t mention it, but it’s possible, maybe even likely, that Germany might get dramatically involved with Italy’s war to grab the Suez Canal and other British holdings in East Africa (see below).
THE BOMBING GOES ON. Frank R. Kelley says in Saturday’s New York Herald Tribune that German warplanes are still blasting London in eight- and nine-hour-long nightly raids, although the numbers of aircraft involved seem to have dwindled somewhat. Apparently this morning’s strikes on central London came from "lone Nazi raiders," he writes, hitting the city at intervals that sound timed to inflict the maximum strain on Londoners’ nerves. And a separate Herald Tribune story reports, hopefully, that the R.A.F. is continuing its "unwavering offensive" against industrial cities in western Germany and invasion bases along the French coast. One time I’ve noticed in the papers over the last few days is the abrupt disappearance of invasion talk, after streams of warnings that the Nazis would cross the Channel sometime in mid-September. Seems like a good thing -- but then, isn’t Hitler usually more prone to strike when he’s not expected to?
NEW POLLS – BAD NEWS FOR WILLKIE. Expectations of a Roosevelt victory in November seem to be growing in the public and in the press. Fulton Lewis, a commentator on the Mutual network, has announced that his survey of leading Washington correspondents showed a prevailing belief in the President’s re-election -- forty-two forecasting a win for Roosevelt, and only eight picking Willkie. A survey of fifty veteran newspapermen in Newsweek shows a two-to-one split, thirty-four predicting Roosevelt and sixteen predicting Willkie. Newsweek points out that the correspondents’ personal views rule out a pro-Roosevelt bias in the poll. In that respect, twenty-five say they support Willkie, twenty plan to vote for Roosevelt, and five are undecided. In other words, Willkie isn't inspring much optimism so far even among some of the knowledgeable observers who are supporting him.
And the latest Gallup survey shows that the public mood seems to justify the outlook of men in the press. The completed results from throughout the nation now show the President leading in thirty-eight states, totaling 453 electoral votes, while Willkie leads in only ten states with 78 electoral votes. The Roosevelt share of the popular vote has also increased substantially, from fifty-one percent to fifty-five percent, says Gallup. But the pollster warns that eleven percent of the voters are undecided -- and that about one-third of the voters declaring for either candidate "have no very firm convictions about how they will vote."
Thus, it’s still way too early for Democrats to start celebrating. No doubt the voter shift has to do with the last two weeks of mass raids on London and the destroyer-for-bases deal -- Gallup notes that the President’s support always increases when the war in Europe heats up. Meranwhile, Willkie has been pretty much out of the spotlight, although his current two-week Western campaign swing promises to be the start of an all-out home-stretch drive. I still think it’ll end up being a very close election, barring a catastrophic turn in the war.
HITLER’S MEDITERRANEAN STRATEGY? Barnet Nover suggests in his Washington Post column Friday that the Nazis, stymied so far in their attempts to crush Britain head-on, might try to subdue the British indirectly by sending German troops across the Mediterranean instead of across the Channel --
"Great Britain remains un-invaded. And while there is still no certainty that Hitler’s invasion plans have definitely been called off for this year, there is a possibility that he may have to do so. The alternative for the Third Reich would be to throw its weight behind the Italian forces in Egypt while continuing the present aerial war of attrition against the British Isles. German troops, originally intended to be used in an invasion of Britain, might be employed in the invasion of Egypt. At the same time an attempt might be made to imprison the British fleet in the Mediterranean by a thrust at Gibraltar and Greece. Without Gibraltar the British would have to clear out of the West Mediterranean. With Greece in Axis hands German and Italian air power and the Italian submarine fleet could pound away at Britain’s Mediterranean fleet."
Mr. Nover indicates we should know soon whether German and Italian strategists are crafting such a plan -- "It is apparent that something important is stirring in Axis circles. Hitler’s time table has gone awry. But time presses. The British must be knocked out soon. If they cannot be knocked out on their home grounds, it is quite conceivable that the Fuehrer may decide to attempt the more round-about method of severing Britain’s Mediterranean lifeline."
WHAT WILLKIE NEEDS FOR VICTORY. Also in Friday’s Washington Post, Ernest K. Lindley offers a bit of encouragement to the Willkie campaign in the wake of the bad polling news this week --
"As it is still six weeks until election, it is possible that the pendulum will swing away from Roosevelt as rapidly and as far as the polls and other reports indicate it has swung toward him during the last few weeks. The Gallup poll shows, moreover, a substantial residue of undecided voters. They may have it in their power to beat Roosevelt by a narrow margin or to elect him by a landslide comparable to 1932 if not quite of 1936 proportions. But if Willkie is to capture these undecided votes and avoid a severe defeat, it looks now as if he would need not only greater campaigning ability than he has yet shown but also a few lucky breaks."
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